With Theresa May finally on her way
out of Downing Street, a Tory leadership contest that has been bubbling
under for months is now starting.
It’s a two-stage process. The
first sees votes among Conservative MPs designed to whittle the
contenders down to just two front-runners. The second stage sees the
party’s grassroots members choose between them in a postal ballot.
In
other words, it is members of the public – those who pay £25 a year to
join the Conservative Party – who get the final say on who the next
prime minister is. There will not be a general election because the
party is already in power.
So, who are its members and what do they think on key issues, not least of course Brexit?
We don’t know exactly how many Conservative Party members there are
because – unlike the UK’s other parties – the Conservatives don’t
regularly release the figures.
The last time they did so was back in March 2018, when they put the figure at 124,000.
That’s larger than some of the more pessimistic guesstimates, but way down on the peak of nearly three million that the party boasted in the early 1950s.
Membership plunged after that before levelling off at around one
million in the 1970s and 1980s, since when it has been dropping almost
inexorably.
One thing we can be sure of, however, is that the Tories have far fewer members than the Labour Party.
Even
if we assume that Labour’s membership has fallen from the late 2017
peak of more than 550,000, it still has a huge advantage over the
Conservatives when it comes to campaigning on the ground.
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